Liga MX · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 03:00. Our rating makes this 56% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Liga MX average is 55%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 44% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 64% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | Yes |
The result model puts Puebla at 22%, the draw at 22% and U.N.A.M. - Pumas at 56%, from expected goals of 1.15 and 1.97.
The league sets the starting point. Liga MX has produced over 2.5 goals in 55% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Puebla have 4 in 13 this season (2 of 6 at home), U.N.A.M. - Pumas 8 in 13 (4 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 46% and 57%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 13 and 13 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 54% and 53%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 60%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 54%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 60%, from expected goals of 1.15 for Puebla and 1.97 for U.N.A.M. - Pumas. Folding in 30% of that view gives 56%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Puebla | 13 | 31% | 23% | 54% |
| U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 13 | 62% | 31% | 62% |
Our numbers give this match a 70% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 39% of two or more. The Liga MX rates are 72% and 40%. After the break: 78% for a goal and 47% for two or more (league 78% and 48%). Puebla's last 50 games had a first-half goal 64% of the time and a second-half goal 74%; U.N.A.M. - Pumas's last 50, 72% and 80%. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · tomorrow.
More: Puebla season stats · U.N.A.M. - Pumas season stats · Liga MX table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.