League Two · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 12:30. Our rating makes this 45% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The League Two average is 47%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 55% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 76% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 52% | No |
The result model puts Port Vale at 56%, the draw at 28% and Rochdale at 17%, from expected goals of 1.45 and 0.66.
The league sets the starting point. League Two has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Port Vale have 1 in 10 this season (0 of 5 at home), Rochdale 7 in 12 (3 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 36% and 51%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 10 and 12 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 41% and 54%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 47%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 35%, from expected goals of 1.45 for Port Vale and 0.66 for Rochdale. Folding in 30% of that view gives 44%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 45%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
Our numbers give this match a 69% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 33% of two or more. The League Two rates, last season and this season combined, are 67% and 33% (this season so far: 69% with a first-half goal, from 138 games). After the break: 76% for a goal and 36% for two or more (league 78% and 43%). Port Vale's last 50 games had a first-half goal 68% of the time and a second-half goal 60%; Rochdale's last 50, 76% and 82%. A goal in both halves: 52% (league 53%). Highest-scoring half: second 45%, first 29%, level 26% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Port Vale season stats · Rochdale season stats · League Two table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.