Championship · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 44% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Championship average is 43%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 56% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | 78% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 46% | 54% | No |
The result model puts Partick at 68%, the draw at 22% and Morton at 10%, from expected goals of 1.81 and 0.52.
The league sets the starting point. Championship has produced over 2.5 goals in 43% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Partick have 2 in 11 this season (1 of 5 at home), Morton 5 in 11 (2 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 35% and 44%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 11 and 11 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 40% and 44%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 42%.
Head to head. These sides have met 12 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 43%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 41%, from expected goals of 1.81 for Partick and 0.52 for Morton. Folding in 30% of that view gives 42%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 44%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
Our numbers give this match a 70% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 31% of two or more. The Championship rates, last season and this season combined, are 70% and 30% (this season so far: 70% with a first-half goal, from 54 games). After the break: 69% for a goal and 38% for two or more (league 67% and 38%). Partick's last 50 games had a first-half goal 70% of the time and a second-half goal 64%; Morton's last 50, 70% and 78%. A goal in both halves: 51% (league 50%). Highest-scoring half: second 40%, first 32%, level 28% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Partick season stats · Morton season stats · Championship table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.