Meistriliiga · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 13:00. Our rating makes this 72% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Meistriliiga average is 67%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 72% | 28% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% | 54% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 41% | Yes |
The result model puts Nõmme United at 10%, the draw at 14% and FC Levadia Tallinn at 76%, from expected goals of 1 and 2.91.
The league sets the starting point. Meistriliiga has produced over 2.5 goals in 67% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Nõmme United have 28 in 32 this season (15 of 16 at home), FC Levadia Tallinn 22 in 32 (11 of 17 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 79% and 68%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 32 and 32 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 79% and 69%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 72%.
Head to head. These sides have met 7 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 43%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 71%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 75%, from expected goals of 1 for Nõmme United and 2.91 for FC Levadia Tallinn. Folding in 30% of that view gives 72%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nõmme United | 32 | 88% | 53% | 75% |
| FC Levadia Tallinn | 32 | 69% | 47% | 59% |
Our numbers give this match a 82% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 48% of two or more. The Meistriliiga rates, last season and this season combined, are 82% and 45% (this season so far: 77% with a first-half goal, from 161 games). After the break: 87% for a goal and 57% for two or more (league 83% and 49%). Nõmme United's last 50 games had a first-half goal 82% of the time and a second-half goal 96%; FC Levadia Tallinn's last 50, 84% and 96%. A goal in both halves: 74% (league 67%). Highest-scoring half: second 44%, first 33%, level 23% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Nõmme United season stats · FC Levadia Tallinn season stats · Meistriliiga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.