HNL · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 16:00. Our rating makes this 49% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The HNL average is 50%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 72% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at 48%, the draw at 26% and NK Osijek at 27%, from expected goals of 1.6 and 1.13.
The league sets the starting point. HNL has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb have 5 in 10 this season (1 of 4 at home), NK Osijek 6 in 10 (3 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 50% and 53%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 10 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 47% and 43%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 46%.
Head to head. These sides have met 12 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 33%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 46%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 51%, from expected goals of 1.6 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and 1.13 for NK Osijek. Folding in 30% of that view gives 47%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 49%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 10 | 50% | 40% | 60% |
| NK Osijek | 10 | 60% | 50% | 50% |
Our numbers give this match a 76% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 36% of two or more. The HNL rates, last season and this season combined, are 77% and 39% (this season so far: 76% with a first-half goal, from 49 games). After the break: 77% for a goal and 37% for two or more (league 77% and 41%). NK Lokomotiva Zagreb's last 50 games had a first-half goal 82% of the time and a second-half goal 84%; NK Osijek's last 50, 70% and 70%. A goal in both halves: 63% (league 61%). Highest-scoring half: second 40%, first 31%, level 29% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb season stats · NK Osijek season stats · HNL table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.