A-League · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 04:00. Our rating makes this 65% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The A-League average is 56%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 35% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 58% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 64% | 36% | Yes |
The result model puts Newcastle Jets at 57%, the draw at 20% and Wellington Phoenix at 23%, from expected goals of 2.31 and 1.42.
The league sets the starting point. A-League has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Newcastle Jets have 1 in 1 this season, Wellington Phoenix 1 in 1. Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 58% and 58%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 1 and 1 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 63% and 62%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 61%.
Head to head. These sides have met 7 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 86%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 62%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 72%, from expected goals of 2.31 for Newcastle Jets and 1.42 for Wellington Phoenix. Folding in 30% of that view gives 65%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Newcastle Jets | 1 | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Wellington Phoenix | 1 | 100% | 0% | 100% |
Our numbers give this match a 73% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 41% of two or more. The A-League rates are 72% and 35%. After the break: 85% for a goal and 52% for two or more (league 82% and 47%). Newcastle Jets's last 50 games had a first-half goal 74% of the time and a second-half goal 92%; Wellington Phoenix's last 50, 76% and 92%. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · tomorrow.
More: Newcastle Jets season stats · Wellington Phoenix season stats · A-League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.