MLS · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 56% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The MLS average is 61%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 44% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 66% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | Yes |
The result model puts New York City FC at 51%, the draw at 24% and CF Montreal at 25%, from expected goals of 1.77 and 1.16.
The league sets the starting point. MLS has produced over 2.5 goals in 61% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. New York City FC have 15 in 30 this season (9 of 15 at home), CF Montreal 19 in 30 (11 of 15 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 55% and 62%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 30 and 30 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 56% and 60%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 59%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 0%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 56%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 56%, from expected goals of 1.77 for New York City FC and 1.16 for CF Montreal. Folding in 30% of that view gives 56%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York City FC | 30 | 50% | 23% | 67% |
| CF Montreal | 30 | 63% | 33% | 53% |
Our numbers give this match a 80% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 42% of two or more. The MLS rates, last season and this season combined, are 78% and 41% (this season so far: 78% with a first-half goal, from 451 games). After the break: 81% for a goal and 48% for two or more (league 81% and 51%). New York City FC's last 50 games had a first-half goal 86% of the time and a second-half goal 78%; CF Montreal's last 50, 80% and 86%. A goal in both halves: 66% (league 64%). Highest-scoring half: second 43%, first 31%, level 26% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: New York City FC season stats · CF Montreal season stats · MLS table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.