Serie B · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 22:30 UK time. Our rating makes this 42% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Serie B average is 41%.
Open this match in the app →| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 58% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | 82% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 52% | No |
The result model puts Nautico Recife at 44%, the draw at 30% and Avai at 27%, from expected goals of 1.26 and 0.91.
The league sets the starting point. Serie B has produced over 2.5 goals in 41% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Nautico Recife have 13 in 34 this season (6 of 17 at home), Avai 15 in 34 (9 of 17 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 39% and 43%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 34 and 34 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 39% and 43%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 41%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 37%, from expected goals of 1.26 for Nautico Recife and 0.91 for Avai. Folding in 30% of that view gives 40%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 42%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nautico Recife | 34 | 38% | 18% | 44% |
| Avai | 34 | 44% | 15% | 47% |
Our numbers give this match a 66% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 25% of two or more. The Serie B rates, last season and this season combined, are 66% and 28% (this season so far: 67% with a first-half goal, from 342 games). After the break: 73% for a goal and 39% for two or more (league 74% and 36%). Nautico Recife's last 50 games had a first-half goal 66% of the time and a second-half goal 68%; Avai's last 50, 66% and 76%. A goal in both halves: 47% (league 48%). Highest-scoring half: second 43%, first 30%, level 27% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Nautico Recife season stats · Avai season stats · Serie B table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.