3. Liga · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 13:00. Our rating makes this 65% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 3. Liga average is 64%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 35% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 58% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 62% | 38% | Yes |
The result model puts MSV Duisburg at 63%, the draw at 21% and Stuttgart II at 16%, from expected goals of 2.13 and 0.98.
The league sets the starting point. 3. Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 64% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. MSV Duisburg have 9 in 10 this season (4 of 5 at home), Stuttgart II 7 in 10 (3 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 71% and 66%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 10 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 65% and 67%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 66%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 67%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 60%, from expected goals of 2.13 for MSV Duisburg and 0.98 for Stuttgart II. Folding in 30% of that view gives 65%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSV Duisburg | 10 | 90% | 40% | 80% |
| Stuttgart II | 10 | 70% | 50% | 80% |
Our numbers give this match a 74% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 43% of two or more. The 3. Liga rates, last season and this season combined, are 77% and 44% (this season so far: 78% with a first-half goal, from 100 games). After the break: 83% for a goal and 56% for two or more (league 82% and 53%). MSV Duisburg's last 50 games had a first-half goal 72% of the time and a second-half goal 80%; Stuttgart II's last 50, 66% and 90%. A goal in both halves: 63% (league 64%). Highest-scoring half: second 44%, first 30%, level 26% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: MSV Duisburg season stats · Stuttgart II season stats · 3. Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.