Premiership · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 47% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Premiership average is 53%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 73% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | No |
The result model puts Motherwell at 54%, the draw at 26% and ST Mirren at 20%, from expected goals of 1.57 and 0.84.
The league sets the starting point. Premiership has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Motherwell have 6 in 9 this season (2 of 4 at home), ST Mirren 5 in 9 (2 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 53%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 9 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 48% and 43%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 47%.
Head to head. These sides have met 9 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 44%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 47%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 43%, from expected goals of 1.57 for Motherwell and 0.84 for ST Mirren. Folding in 30% of that view gives 46%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 47%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell | 9 | 67% | 33% | 44% |
| ST Mirren | 9 | 56% | 33% | 33% |
Our numbers give this match a 74% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 34% of two or more. The Premiership rates, last season and this season combined, are 77% and 35% (this season so far: 83% with a first-half goal, from 54 games). After the break: 79% for a goal and 44% for two or more (league 79% and 45%). Motherwell's last 50 games had a first-half goal 70% of the time and a second-half goal 76%; ST Mirren's last 50, 72% and 84%. A goal in both halves: 60% (league 62%). Highest-scoring half: second 42%, first 28%, level 30% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Motherwell season stats · ST Mirren season stats · Premiership table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.