Primeira Liga · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 15:30. Our rating makes this 55% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Primeira Liga average is 54%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 66% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Moreirense at 37%, the draw at 25% and Estrela at 39%, from expected goals of 1.52 and 1.56.
The league sets the starting point. Primeira Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 54% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Moreirense have 5 in 8 this season (3 of 4 at home), Estrela 6 in 8 (3 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 59%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 8 and 8 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 53% and 55%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 54%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 59%, from expected goals of 1.52 for Moreirense and 1.56 for Estrela. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moreirense | 8 | 63% | 50% | 50% |
| Estrela | 8 | 75% | 63% | 75% |
Our numbers give this match a 68% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 36% of two or more. The Primeira Liga rates, last season and this season combined, are 69% and 36% (this season so far: 72% with a first-half goal, from 72 games). After the break: 80% for a goal and 44% for two or more (league 79% and 43%). Moreirense's last 50 games had a first-half goal 66% of the time and a second-half goal 84%; Estrela's last 50, 68% and 80%. A goal in both halves: 56% (league 55%). Highest-scoring half: second 44%, first 31%, level 25% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Moreirense season stats · Estrela season stats · Primeira Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.