Premiere Ligue (W) · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 16:00. Our rating makes this 69% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Premiere Ligue (W) average is 58%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 31% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% | 54% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts Montpellier W at 6%, the draw at 10% and Lyon W at 84%, from expected goals of 0.89 and 3.4.
The league sets the starting point. Premiere Ligue (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Montpellier W have 1 in 5 this season (1 of 3 at home), Lyon W 5 in 5 (3 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 52% and 66%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 5 and 5 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 64% and 64%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 63%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 65%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 80%, from expected goals of 0.89 for Montpellier W and 3.4 for Lyon W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 69%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montpellier W | 5 | 20% | 20% | 60% |
| Lyon W | 5 | 100% | 100% | 60% |
Our numbers give this match a 79% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 44% of two or more. The Premiere Ligue (W) rates, last season and this season combined, are 77% and 39% (this season so far: 87% with a first-half goal, from 30 games). After the break: 80% for a goal and 58% for two or more (league 79% and 51%). Montpellier W's last 50 games had a first-half goal 74% of the time and a second-half goal 82%; Lyon W's last 50, 88% and 84%. A goal in both halves: 66% (league 61%). Highest-scoring half: second 44%, first 31%, level 25% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Montpellier W season stats · Lyon W season stats · Premiere Ligue (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.