Serie B · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 14:00. Our rating makes this 51% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Serie B average is 49%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 49% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 74% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts Modena at 42%, the draw at 27% and Mantova at 31%, from expected goals of 1.38 and 1.15.
The league sets the starting point. Serie B has produced over 2.5 goals in 49% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Modena have 5 in 7 this season (2 of 3 at home), Mantova 4 in 7 (2 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 54% and 51%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 7 and 7 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 50% and 51%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 50%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 75%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 52%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 46%, from expected goals of 1.38 for Modena and 1.15 for Mantova. Folding in 30% of that view gives 50%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 51%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
Our numbers give this match a 71% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 32% of two or more. The Serie B rates, last season and this season combined, are 69% and 31% (this season so far: 66% with a first-half goal, from 70 games). After the break: 80% for a goal and 47% for two or more (league 79% and 46%). Modena's last 50 games had a first-half goal 76% of the time and a second-half goal 76%; Mantova's last 50, 70% and 86%. A goal in both halves: 59% (league 55%). Highest-scoring half: second 44%, first 28%, level 28% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Modena season stats · Mantova season stats · Serie B table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.