League One · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 52% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The League One average is 51%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 48% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 72% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Mansfield Town at 60%, the draw at 23% and Notts County at 17%, from expected goals of 1.89 and 0.89.
The league sets the starting point. League One has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Mansfield Town have 7 in 10 this season (3 of 5 at home), Notts County 3 in 10 (1 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 57% and 45%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 10 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 50% and 51%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 51%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 53%, from expected goals of 1.89 for Mansfield Town and 0.89 for Notts County. Folding in 30% of that view gives 51%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 52%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mansfield Town | 10 | 70% | 30% | 60% |
| Notts County | 10 | 30% | 10% | 60% |
Our numbers give this match a 69% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 32% of two or more. The League One rates, last season and this season combined, are 69% and 31% (this season so far: 67% with a first-half goal, from 126 games). After the break: 81% for a goal and 41% for two or more (league 82% and 44%). Mansfield Town's last 50 games had a first-half goal 70% of the time and a second-half goal 74%; Notts County's last 50, 68% and 88%. A goal in both halves: 59% (league 57%). Highest-scoring half: second 45%, first 29%, level 26% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Mansfield Town season stats · Notts County season stats · League One table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.