1. Lig · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 16:00. Our rating makes this 58% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 1. Lig average is 52%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 42% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 63% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | Yes |
The result model puts Manisa F.K. at 52%, the draw at 23% and Batman Petrolspor at 25%, from expected goals of 1.93 and 1.29.
The league sets the starting point. 1. Lig has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Manisa F.K. have 7 in 11 this season (3 of 6 at home), Batman Petrolspor 9 in 11 (5 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 61%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 11 and 11 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 54% and 58%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 62%, from expected goals of 1.93 for Manisa F.K. and 1.29 for Batman Petrolspor. Folding in 30% of that view gives 58%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manisa F.K. | 11 | 64% | 45% | 82% |
| Batman Petrolspor | 11 | 82% | 45% | 73% |
Our numbers give this match a 77% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 38% of two or more. The 1. Lig rates, last season and this season combined, are 71% and 37% (this season so far: 72% with a first-half goal, from 109 games). After the break: 80% for a goal and 50% for two or more (league 80% and 50%). Manisa F.K.'s last 50 games had a first-half goal 74% of the time and a second-half goal 80%; Batman Petrolspor's last 50, 94% and 84%. A goal in both halves: 65% (league 58%). Highest-scoring half: second 44%, first 29%, level 27% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Manisa F.K. season stats · Batman Petrolspor season stats · 1. Lig table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.