Liga F (W) · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 17:00. Our rating makes this 53% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Liga F (W) average is 51%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 65% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 52% | No |
The result model puts Madrid CFF W at 42%, the draw at 26% and Deportivo de La Coruña W at 32%, from expected goals of 1.47 and 1.25.
The league sets the starting point. Liga F (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Madrid CFF W have 5 in 7 this season (2 of 4 at home), Deportivo de La Coruña W 3 in 7 (2 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 49%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 7 and 7 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 52% and 52%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 52%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 75%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 53%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 51%, from expected goals of 1.47 for Madrid CFF W and 1.25 for Deportivo de La Coruña W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 52%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 53%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madrid CFF W | 7 | 71% | 71% | 57% |
| Deportivo de La Coruña W | 7 | 43% | 14% | 43% |
Our numbers give this match a 72% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 38% of two or more. The Liga F (W) rates, last season and this season combined, are 72% and 37% (this season so far: 66% with a first-half goal, from 56 games). After the break: 77% for a goal and 51% for two or more (league 75% and 45%). Madrid CFF W's last 50 games had a first-half goal 76% of the time and a second-half goal 78%; Deportivo de La Coruña W's last 50, 68% and 80%. A goal in both halves: 56% (league 54%). Highest-scoring half: second 44%, first 29%, level 27% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Madrid CFF W season stats · Deportivo de La Coruña W season stats · Liga F (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.