Ligat Ha'al · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 53% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Ligat Ha'al average is 56%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 68% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts Maccabi Netanya at 40%, the draw at 27% and Hapoel Katamon at 32%, from expected goals of 1.35 and 1.17.
The league sets the starting point. Ligat Ha'al has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Maccabi Netanya have 2 in 7 this season (1 of 4 at home), Hapoel Katamon 6 in 7 (3 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 49% and 62%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 7 and 7 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 59% and 50%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Head to head. These sides have met 7 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 57%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 55%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 46%, from expected goals of 1.35 for Maccabi Netanya and 1.17 for Hapoel Katamon. Folding in 30% of that view gives 52%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 53%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maccabi Netanya | 7 | 29% | 14% | 57% |
| Hapoel Katamon | 7 | 86% | 71% | 86% |
Our numbers give this match a 68% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 34% of two or more. The Ligat Ha'al rates, last season and this season combined, are 67% and 36% (this season so far: 65% with a first-half goal, from 49 games). After the break: 78% for a goal and 51% for two or more (league 79% and 52%). Maccabi Netanya's last 50 games had a first-half goal 78% of the time and a second-half goal 82%; Hapoel Katamon's last 50, 62% and 68%. A goal in both halves: 55% (league 54%). Highest-scoring half: second 45%, first 28%, level 27% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Maccabi Netanya season stats · Hapoel Katamon season stats · Ligat Ha'al table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.