First League · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 16:00. Our rating makes this 47% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The First League average is 45%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 53% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | 77% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts Ludogorets at 52%, the draw at 27% and CSKA 1948 at 22%, from expected goals of 1.53 and 0.9.
The league sets the starting point. First League has produced over 2.5 goals in 45% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Ludogorets have 5 in 10 this season (3 of 6 at home), CSKA 1948 8 in 11 (3 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 46% and 53%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 10 and 11 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 44% and 49%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 46%.
Head to head. These sides have met 8 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 63%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 47%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 44%, from expected goals of 1.53 for Ludogorets and 0.9 for CSKA 1948. Folding in 30% of that view gives 46%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 47%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ludogorets | 10 | 50% | 20% | 60% |
| CSKA 1948 | 11 | 73% | 36% | 73% |
Our numbers give this match a 67% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 30% of two or more. The First League rates, last season and this season combined, are 64% and 28% (this season so far: 68% with a first-half goal, from 76 games). After the break: 75% for a goal and 39% for two or more (league 75% and 38%). Ludogorets's last 50 games had a first-half goal 74% of the time and a second-half goal 72%; CSKA 1948's last 50, 66% and 76%. A goal in both halves: 53% (league 51%). Highest-scoring half: second 44%, first 28%, level 28% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Ludogorets season stats · CSKA 1948 season stats · First League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.