First League · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 12:00 UK time
CompactStats rates Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Ludogorets (First League, Saturday, 31 October 2026) 41% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with Lokomotiv Plovdiv 21%, the draw 30% and Ludogorets 49%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 41% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | – |
| Both teams to score | 45% | No |
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv win | 21% | |
| Draw | 30% | |
| Ludogorets win | 49% | Pick |
| Goal in the 1st half | 68% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 72% | |
| Goal in both halves | 48% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 12 | 17% | 0% | 33% |
| Ludogorets | 10 | 50% | 20% | 60% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 68% | 64% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 28% | 28% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 72% | 75% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 34% | 37% |
| Goal in both halves | 48% | 51% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 44% | 2nd 44% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 70% | 58% | 50 |
| Ludogorets | 74% | 72% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 69% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Lokomotiv Plovdiv season stats · Ludogorets season stats · First League table and form
League. First League has had over 2.5 goals in 44% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2 of 12 (2 of 6 at home), Ludogorets 5 of 10 (2 of 4 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 35% and 46%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 37% and 44%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 41%.
Head to head. 8 meetings in 3 years, 25% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 40%.
Goal model. Expected goals 0.75 (Lokomotiv Plovdiv) v 1.29 (Ludogorets) give 33%; 30% weight: 38%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 41%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.