Premier League · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 16:00. Our rating makes this 46% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The Premier League average is 48%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 54% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 75% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 45% | 55% | No |
The result model puts LNZ Cherkasy at 53%, the draw at 27% and FC Kharkiv at 20%, from expected goals of 1.51 and 0.82.
The league sets the starting point. Premier League has produced over 2.5 goals in 48% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. LNZ Cherkasy have 5 in 9 this season (2 of 4 at home), FC Kharkiv 5 in 8 (3 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 50% and 51%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 8 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 40% and 51%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 46%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 41%, from expected goals of 1.51 for LNZ Cherkasy and 0.82 for FC Kharkiv. Folding in 30% of that view gives 45%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 46%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LNZ Cherkasy | 9 | 56% | 11% | 22% |
| FC Kharkiv | 8 | 63% | 25% | 38% |
Our numbers give this match a 66% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 25% of two or more. The Premier League rates, last season and this season combined, are 69% and 30% (this season so far: 70% with a first-half goal, from 71 games). After the break: 73% for a goal and 38% for two or more (league 76% and 41%). LNZ Cherkasy's last 50 games had a first-half goal 52% of the time and a second-half goal 60%; FC Kharkiv's last 8, 75% and 75%. A goal in both halves: 49% (league 56%). Highest-scoring half: second 43%, first 28%, level 29% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: LNZ Cherkasy season stats · FC Kharkiv season stats · Premier League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.