Championship · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 12:30. Our rating makes this 50% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Championship average is 53%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 73% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Lincoln at 25%, the draw at 28% and Birmingham at 47%, from expected goals of 0.93 and 1.4.
The league sets the starting point. Championship has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Lincoln have 6 in 11 this season (3 of 5 at home), Birmingham 8 in 11 (3 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 54% and 59%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 11 and 11 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 54% and 52%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 53%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 53%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 41%, from expected goals of 0.93 for Lincoln and 1.4 for Birmingham. Folding in 30% of that view gives 49%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 50%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lincoln | 11 | 55% | 27% | 45% |
| Birmingham | 11 | 73% | 36% | 64% |
Our numbers give this match a 77% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 38% of two or more. The Championship rates, last season and this season combined, are 72% and 35% (this season so far: 77% with a first-half goal, from 132 games). After the break: 78% for a goal and 39% for two or more (league 77% and 44%). Lincoln's last 50 games had a first-half goal 80% of the time and a second-half goal 84%; Birmingham's last 50, 84% and 74%. A goal in both halves: 61% (league 56%). Highest-scoring half: second 43%, first 32%, level 25% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Lincoln season stats · Birmingham season stats · Championship table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.