League One · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 50% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The League One average is 51%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 73% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Leicester at 40%, the draw at 27% and Stevenage at 33%, from expected goals of 1.35 and 1.21.
The league sets the starting point. League One has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Leicester have 6 in 10 this season (4 of 5 at home), Stevenage 5 in 10 (1 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 54% and 51%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 10 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 53% and 44%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 49%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 47%, from expected goals of 1.35 for Leicester and 1.21 for Stevenage. Folding in 30% of that view gives 49%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 50%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
Our numbers give this match a 66% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 34% of two or more. The League One rates, last season and this season combined, are 69% and 31% (this season so far: 67% with a first-half goal, from 126 games). After the break: 79% for a goal and 37% for two or more (league 82% and 44%). Leicester's last 50 games had a first-half goal 78% of the time and a second-half goal 76%; Stevenage's last 50, 46% and 72%. A goal in both halves: 49% (league 57%). Highest-scoring half: second 46%, first 30%, level 24% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Leicester season stats · Stevenage season stats · League One table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.