Premier League · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 16:00. Our rating makes this 62% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Premier League average is 48%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 38% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | 59% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 55% | 45% | Yes |
The result model puts Kryvbas KR at 30%, the draw at 20% and Dynamo Kyiv at 50%, from expected goals of 1.81 and 2.35.
The league sets the starting point. Premier League has produced over 2.5 goals in 48% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Kryvbas KR have 4 in 7 this season (3 of 4 at home), Dynamo Kyiv 6 in 9 (3 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 50% and 53%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 7 and 9 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 55% and 57%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 67%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 55%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 78%, from expected goals of 1.81 for Kryvbas KR and 2.35 for Dynamo Kyiv. Folding in 30% of that view gives 62%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kryvbas KR | 7 | 57% | 43% | 57% |
| Dynamo Kyiv | 9 | 67% | 22% | 44% |
Our numbers give this match a 72% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 33% of two or more. The Premier League rates, last season and this season combined, are 69% and 30% (this season so far: 70% with a first-half goal, from 71 games). After the break: 77% for a goal and 42% for two or more (league 76% and 41%). Kryvbas KR's last 50 games had a first-half goal 72% of the time and a second-half goal 76%; Dynamo Kyiv's last 50, 82% and 82%. A goal in both halves: 61% (league 56%). Highest-scoring half: second 42%, first 29%, level 29% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Kryvbas KR season stats · Dynamo Kyiv season stats · Premier League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.