PSL · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 18:15. Our rating makes this 38% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is under. The PSL average is 30%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 38% | 62% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18% | 82% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 45% | 55% | No |
The result model puts Kruger United at 32%, the draw at 31% and Richards Bay at 37%, from expected goals of 1 and 1.1.
The league sets the starting point. PSL has produced over 2.5 goals in 30% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Kruger United have 3 in 8 this season (2 of 4 at home), Richards Bay 6 in 8 (1 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 32% and 42%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 8 and 8 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 43% and 31%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 36%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 35%, from expected goals of 1 for Kruger United and 1.1 for Richards Bay. Folding in 30% of that view gives 35%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 38%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kruger United | 8 | 38% | 25% | 25% |
| Richards Bay | 8 | 75% | 50% | 100% |
Our numbers give this match a 62% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 24% of two or more. The PSL rates, last season and this season combined, are 59% and 23% (this season so far: 55% with a first-half goal, from 65 games). After the break: 74% for a goal and 34% for two or more (league 70% and 30%). Kruger United's last 39 games had a first-half goal 72% of the time and a second-half goal 90%; Richards Bay's last 50, 60% and 74%. A goal in both halves: 50% (league 43%). Highest-scoring half: second 43%, first 27%, level 30% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Kruger United season stats · Richards Bay season stats · PSL table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.