First Division · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 14:00. Our rating makes this 52% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The First Division average is 50%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 48% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 71% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts Krasava Ypsonas at 16%, the draw at 22% and AEK Larnaca at 62%, from expected goals of 0.87 and 1.92.
The league sets the starting point. First Division has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Krasava Ypsonas have 5 in 6 this season (3 of 4 at home), AEK Larnaca 3 in 6 (2 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 57% and 50%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 6 and 6 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 48% and 46%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 48%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 100%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 50%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 53%, from expected goals of 0.87 for Krasava Ypsonas and 1.92 for AEK Larnaca. Folding in 30% of that view gives 51%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 52%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Krasava Ypsonas | 6 | 83% | 33% | 67% |
| AEK Larnaca | 6 | 50% | 33% | 67% |
Our numbers give this match a 70% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 28% of two or more. The First Division rates, last season and this season combined, are 73% and 29% (this season so far: 71% with a first-half goal, from 42 games). After the break: 81% for a goal and 44% for two or more (league 80% and 47%). Krasava Ypsonas's last 39 games had a first-half goal 64% of the time and a second-half goal 87%; AEK Larnaca's last 50, 68% and 82%. A goal in both halves: 57% (league 58%). Highest-scoring half: second 46%, first 28%, level 26% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Krasava Ypsonas season stats · AEK Larnaca season stats · First Division table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.