League Two · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 60% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The League Two average is 57%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 63% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 63% | 37% | Yes |
The result model puts Kelty Hearts at 47%, the draw at 23% and Elgin City at 30%, from expected goals of 1.9 and 1.51.
The league sets the starting point. League Two has produced over 2.5 goals in 57% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Kelty Hearts have 8 in 11 this season (5 of 5 at home), Elgin City 8 in 11 (4 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 62% and 62%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 11 and 11 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 56% and 58%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 57%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 66%, from expected goals of 1.9 for Kelty Hearts and 1.51 for Elgin City. Folding in 30% of that view gives 60%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelty Hearts | 11 | 73% | 45% | 73% |
| Elgin City | 11 | 73% | 55% | 64% |
Our numbers give this match a 77% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 41% of two or more. The League Two rates, last season and this season combined, are 76% and 43% (this season so far: 82% with a first-half goal, from 55 games). After the break: 82% for a goal and 49% for two or more (league 79% and 44%). Kelty Hearts's last 50 games had a first-half goal 80% of the time and a second-half goal 82%; Elgin City's last 50, 76% and 90%. A goal in both halves: 64% (league 60%). Highest-scoring half: second 42%, first 31%, level 27% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Kelty Hearts season stats · Elgin City season stats · League Two table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.