Premier League · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 16:00. Our rating makes this 53% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Premier League average is 48%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 66% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 49% | Yes |
The result model puts Karpaty at 71%, the draw at 17% and Kudrivka at 11%, from expected goals of 2.4 and 0.85.
The league sets the starting point. Premier League has produced over 2.5 goals in 48% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Karpaty have 5 in 9 this season (4 of 5 at home), Kudrivka 8 in 10 (5 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 50% and 57%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 45% and 51%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 48%.
Head to head. These sides have met 2 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 48%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 63%, from expected goals of 2.4 for Karpaty and 0.85 for Kudrivka. Folding in 30% of that view gives 53%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
Our numbers give this match a 71% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 33% of two or more. The Premier League rates, last season and this season combined, are 69% and 30% (this season so far: 70% with a first-half goal, from 71 games). After the break: 77% for a goal and 47% for two or more (league 76% and 41%). Karpaty's last 50 games had a first-half goal 68% of the time and a second-half goal 76%; Kudrivka's last 44, 80% and 80%. A goal in both halves: 59% (league 56%). Highest-scoring half: second 42%, first 28%, level 30% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Karpaty season stats · Kudrivka season stats · Premier League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.