2. Bundesliga · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 19:30. Our rating makes this 65% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 2. Bundesliga average is 58%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 35% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | 59% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 62% | 38% | Yes |
The result model puts Karlsruher SC at 40%, the draw at 22% and 1. FC Heidenheim at 37%, from expected goals of 1.87 and 1.79.
The league sets the starting point. 2. Bundesliga has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Karlsruher SC have 5 in 8 this season (4 of 5 at home), 1. FC Heidenheim 5 in 8 (3 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 59% and 59%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 8 and 8 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 65% and 62%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 62%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 71%, from expected goals of 1.87 for Karlsruher SC and 1.79 for 1. FC Heidenheim. Folding in 30% of that view gives 65%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karlsruher SC | 8 | 63% | 38% | 38% |
| 1. FC Heidenheim | 8 | 63% | 63% | 63% |
Our numbers give this match a 74% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 41% of two or more. The 2. Bundesliga rates, last season and this season combined, are 72% and 39% (this season so far: 78% with a first-half goal, from 72 games). After the break: 86% for a goal and 57% for two or more (league 84% and 48%). Karlsruher SC's last 50 games had a first-half goal 76% of the time and a second-half goal 88%; 1. FC Heidenheim's last 50, 76% and 90%. A goal in both halves: 67% (league 61%). Highest-scoring half: second 45%, first 29%, level 26% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Karlsruher SC season stats · 1. FC Heidenheim season stats · 2. Bundesliga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.