Premier League · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 10:00. Our rating makes this 53% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Premier League average is 50%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 71% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 54% | 46% | Yes |
The result model puts Irtysh at 16%, the draw at 22% and Ordabasy at 62%, from expected goals of 0.89 and 1.99.
The league sets the starting point. Premier League has produced over 2.5 goals in 50% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Irtysh have 14 in 28 this season (6 of 14 at home), Ordabasy 17 in 28 (10 of 14 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 50% and 56%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 28 and 28 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 50% and 54%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 52%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 55%, from expected goals of 0.89 for Irtysh and 1.99 for Ordabasy. Folding in 30% of that view gives 53%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
Our numbers give this match a 70% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 30% of two or more. The Premier League rates, last season and this season combined, are 70% and 30% (this season so far: 68% with a first-half goal, from 224 games). After the break: 78% for a goal and 47% for two or more (league 78% and 45%). Irtysh's last 28 games had a first-half goal 64% of the time and a second-half goal 71%; Ordabasy's last 50, 74% and 84%. A goal in both halves: 55% (league 56%). Highest-scoring half: second 44%, first 29%, level 27% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Irtysh season stats · Ordabasy season stats · Premier League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.