Premiership · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 15:00. Our rating makes this 52% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Premiership average is 53%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 48% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 72% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Hibernian at 45%, the draw at 29% and Dundee at 27%, from expected goals of 1.33 and 0.97.
The league sets the starting point. Premiership has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Hibernian have 6 in 9 this season (3 of 5 at home), Dundee 5 in 9 (2 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 53%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 9 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 55% and 55%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 54%.
Head to head. These sides have met 9 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 89%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 56%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 41%, from expected goals of 1.33 for Hibernian and 0.97 for Dundee. Folding in 30% of that view gives 51%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 52%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
Our numbers give this match a 77% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 34% of two or more. The Premiership rates, last season and this season combined, are 77% and 35% (this season so far: 83% with a first-half goal, from 54 games). After the break: 77% for a goal and 46% for two or more (league 79% and 45%). Hibernian's last 50 games had a first-half goal 78% of the time and a second-half goal 68%; Dundee's last 50, 74% and 80%. A goal in both halves: 58% (league 62%). Highest-scoring half: second 41%, first 30%, level 29% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Hibernian season stats · Dundee season stats · Premiership table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.