Ligat Ha'al · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 53% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Ligat Ha'al average is 56%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 66% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts Hapoel Tel Aviv at 62%, the draw at 23% and Maccabi Haifa at 15%, from expected goals of 1.85 and 0.77.
The league sets the starting point. Ligat Ha'al has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Hapoel Tel Aviv have 5 in 7 this season (3 of 4 at home), Maccabi Haifa 7 in 7 (4 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 59% and 66%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 7 and 7 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 51% and 60%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 55%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 49%, from expected goals of 1.85 for Hapoel Tel Aviv and 0.77 for Maccabi Haifa. Folding in 30% of that view gives 53%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hapoel Tel Aviv | 7 | 71% | 43% | 29% |
| Maccabi Haifa | 7 | 100% | 57% | 86% |
Our numbers give this match a 66% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 33% of two or more. The Ligat Ha'al rates, last season and this season combined, are 67% and 36% (this season so far: 65% with a first-half goal, from 49 games). After the break: 81% for a goal and 56% for two or more (league 79% and 52%). Hapoel Tel Aviv's last 50 games had a first-half goal 56% of the time and a second-half goal 80%; Maccabi Haifa's last 50, 72% and 88%. A goal in both halves: 55% (league 54%). Highest-scoring half: second 46%, first 27%, level 27% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Hapoel Tel Aviv season stats · Maccabi Haifa season stats · Ligat Ha'al table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.