Ligat Ha'al · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 61% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Ligat Ha'al average is 56%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 61% | 39% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42% | 58% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | Yes |
The result model puts Hapoel Ramat Gan at 14%, the draw at 18% and Maccabi Tel Aviv at 68%, from expected goals of 1.07 and 2.49.
The league sets the starting point. Ligat Ha'al has produced over 2.5 goals in 56% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Hapoel Ramat Gan have 4 in 7 this season (2 of 3 at home), Maccabi Tel Aviv 5 in 7 (3 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 59%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 7 and 7 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 55% and 62%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 58%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 69%, from expected goals of 1.07 for Hapoel Ramat Gan and 2.49 for Maccabi Tel Aviv. Folding in 30% of that view gives 61%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hapoel Ramat Gan | 7 | 57% | 29% | 29% |
| Maccabi Tel Aviv | 7 | 71% | 57% | 71% |
Our numbers give this match a 68% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 37% of two or more. The Ligat Ha'al rates, last season and this season combined, are 67% and 36% (this season so far: 65% with a first-half goal, from 49 games). After the break: 81% for a goal and 57% for two or more (league 79% and 52%). Hapoel Ramat Gan's last 46 games had a first-half goal 61% of the time and a second-half goal 87%; Maccabi Tel Aviv's last 50, 78% and 84%. A goal in both halves: 58% (league 54%). Highest-scoring half: second 46%, first 28%, level 26% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Hapoel Ramat Gan season stats · Maccabi Tel Aviv season stats · Ligat Ha'al table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.