NB I · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 16:00. Our rating makes this 56% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The NB I average is 59%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 44% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 65% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | Yes |
The result model puts Gyori ETO FC at 58%, the draw at 24% and Vasas at 18%, from expected goals of 1.77 and 0.88.
The league sets the starting point. NB I has produced over 2.5 goals in 59% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Gyori ETO FC have 7 in 10 this season (4 of 5 at home), Vasas 6 in 10 (3 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 62% and 60%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 10 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 56% and 60%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 58%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 49%, from expected goals of 1.77 for Gyori ETO FC and 0.88 for Vasas. Folding in 30% of that view gives 56%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gyori ETO FC | 10 | 70% | 30% | 60% |
| Vasas | 10 | 60% | 50% | 60% |
Our numbers give this match a 69% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 36% of two or more. The NB I rates, last season and this season combined, are 69% and 39% (this season so far: 68% with a first-half goal, from 59 games). After the break: 83% for a goal and 42% for two or more (league 86% and 48%). Gyori ETO FC's last 50 games had a first-half goal 72% of the time and a second-half goal 82%; Vasas's last 43, 65% and 70%. A goal in both halves: 55% (league 60%). Highest-scoring half: second 45%, first 29%, level 26% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Gyori ETO FC season stats · Vasas season stats · NB I table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.