K League 1 · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 07:30 UK time
CompactStats rates Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC (K League 1, Saturday, 31 October 2026) 49% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with Gwangju FC 22%, the draw 24% and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 54%.
| Market | Our chance | Call |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | Under |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | – |
| Both teams to score | 54% | Yes |
| Gwangju FC win | 22% | |
| Draw | 24% | |
| Gimcheon Sangmu FC win | 54% | Pick |
| Goal in the 1st half | 62% | |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 78% | |
| Goal in both halves | 50% |
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| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gwangju FC | 33 | 55% | 39% | 48% |
| Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 33 | 36% | 21% | 61% |
| This match | League | |
|---|---|---|
| Goal in the 1st half | 62% | 63% |
| 2+ goals in the 1st half | 31% | 29% |
| Goal in the 2nd half | 78% | 78% |
| 2+ goals in the 2nd half | 51% | 47% |
| Goal in both halves | 50% | 50% |
| Half with most goals | 2nd 46% | 2nd 48% |
| Team (own games) | 1st half goal | 2nd half goal | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gwangju FC | 62% | 78% | 50 |
| Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 60% | 78% | 50 |
League = last season and this season combined (this season alone 62% in the 1st half). Every match ranked: first half goals today · second half · both halves · tomorrow.
More: Gwangju FC season stats · Gimcheon Sangmu FC season stats · K League 1 table and form
League. K League 1 has had over 2.5 goals in 48% of its games. That is the starting point.
Each side. Gwangju FC 18 of 33 (8 of 17 at home), Gimcheon Sangmu FC 12 of 33 (5 of 17 away). Steadied toward the league rate, so a few odd games can't swing it: 52% and 41%.
Last season. Still blended in until game 40: 50% and 43%.
Mix. 40% home side, 40% away side, 20% league: 47%.
Head to head. 9 meetings in 3 years, 22% over 2.5 goals. A small 5% nudge: 45%.
Goal model. Expected goals 1.03 (Gwangju FC) v 1.75 (Gimcheon Sangmu FC) give 53%; 30% weight: 48%.
Calibration. Low ratings in this range have run a little pessimistic in testing, so they are lifted: 49%.
Worked from the same inputs as the rating. The full model is in the methodology.
They are calibrated chances: a 60% call should land about six times in ten and miss about four. Ratings freeze before kick-off and are graded afterwards. The model reads goals, not team news, so it knows nothing about injuries, rotation or weather. Stats, not advice · 18+.