League Two · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 12:30. Our rating makes this 52% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The League Two average is 47%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 48% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 69% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 53% | 47% | Yes |
The result model puts Grimsby at 58%, the draw at 24% and York at 18%, from expected goals of 1.75 and 0.87.
The league sets the starting point. League Two has produced over 2.5 goals in 47% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Grimsby have 6 in 12 this season (2 of 6 at home), York 5 in 11 (1 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 48% and 47%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 12 and 11 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 49% and 57%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 52%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 49%, from expected goals of 1.75 for Grimsby and 0.87 for York. Folding in 30% of that view gives 51%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 52%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
Our numbers give this match a 71% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 38% of two or more. The League Two rates, last season and this season combined, are 67% and 33% (this season so far: 69% with a first-half goal, from 138 games). After the break: 80% for a goal and 44% for two or more (league 78% and 43%). Grimsby's last 50 games had a first-half goal 70% of the time and a second-half goal 72%; York's last 50, 82% and 94%. A goal in both halves: 58% (league 53%). Highest-scoring half: second 45%, first 29%, level 26% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Grimsby season stats · York season stats · League Two table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.