Super League · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 17:00. Our rating makes this 67% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Super League average is 68%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 33% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | 57% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 68% | 32% | Yes |
The result model puts Grasshoppers at 40%, the draw at 23% and FC Vaduz at 37%, from expected goals of 1.79 and 1.72.
The league sets the starting point. Super League has produced over 2.5 goals in 68% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Grasshoppers have 6 in 10 this season (3 of 5 at home), FC Vaduz 10 in 10 (5 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 66% and 78%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 10 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 63% and 69%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 67%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 68%, from expected goals of 1.79 for Grasshoppers and 1.72 for FC Vaduz. Folding in 30% of that view gives 67%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grasshoppers | 10 | 60% | 50% | 70% |
| FC Vaduz | 10 | 100% | 50% | 90% |
Our numbers give this match a 78% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 45% of two or more. The Super League rates, last season and this season combined, are 76% and 43% (this season so far: 82% with a first-half goal, from 60 games). After the break: 85% for a goal and 56% for two or more (league 85% and 57%). Grasshoppers's last 50 games had a first-half goal 78% of the time and a second-half goal 84%; FC Vaduz's last 50, 82% and 84%. A goal in both halves: 66% (league 66%). Highest-scoring half: second 46%, first 29%, level 25% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Grasshoppers season stats · FC Vaduz season stats · Super League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.