Liga F (W) · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 11:00. Our rating makes this 55% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Liga F (W) average is 51%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 45% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 62% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 51% | No |
The result model puts Granada at 25%, the draw at 22% and Atletico Madrid W at 54%, from expected goals of 1.39 and 2.11.
The league sets the starting point. Liga F (W) has produced over 2.5 goals in 51% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Granada have 4 in 7 this season (2 of 3 at home), Atletico Madrid W 5 in 7 (4 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 53% and 56%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 7 and 7 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 46% and 57%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 51%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 17%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 49%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 68%, from expected goals of 1.39 for Granada and 2.11 for Atletico Madrid W. Folding in 30% of that view gives 55%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Granada | 7 | 57% | 43% | 43% |
| Atletico Madrid W | 7 | 71% | 57% | 57% |
Our numbers give this match a 74% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 38% of two or more. The Liga F (W) rates, last season and this season combined, are 72% and 37% (this season so far: 66% with a first-half goal, from 56 games). After the break: 77% for a goal and 48% for two or more (league 75% and 45%). Granada's last 50 games had a first-half goal 72% of the time and a second-half goal 78%; Atletico Madrid W's last 50, 82% and 82%. A goal in both halves: 57% (league 54%). Highest-scoring half: second 43%, first 30%, level 27% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Granada season stats · Atletico Madrid W season stats · Liga F (W) table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.