Ekstraklasa · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 17:00. Our rating makes this 53% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Ekstraklasa average is 53%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 69% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 39% | Yes |
The result model puts Gornik Zabrze at 43%, the draw at 25% and Legia Warszawa at 32%, from expected goals of 1.57 and 1.32.
The league sets the starting point. Ekstraklasa has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Gornik Zabrze have 7 in 11 this season (4 of 5 at home), Legia Warszawa 4 in 11 (2 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 57% and 48%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 11 and 11 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 52% and 48%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 51%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 60%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 51%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 55%, from expected goals of 1.57 for Gornik Zabrze and 1.32 for Legia Warszawa. Folding in 30% of that view gives 52%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 53%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gornik Zabrze | 11 | 64% | 27% | 73% |
| Legia Warszawa | 11 | 36% | 36% | 73% |
Our numbers give this match a 72% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 33% of two or more. The Ekstraklasa rates, last season and this season combined, are 72% and 35% (this season so far: 68% with a first-half goal, from 97 games). After the break: 77% for a goal and 47% for two or more (league 79% and 48%). Gornik Zabrze's last 50 games had a first-half goal 62% of the time and a second-half goal 78%; Legia Warszawa's last 50, 84% and 68%. A goal in both halves: 54% (league 58%). Highest-scoring half: second 45%, first 29%, level 26% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Gornik Zabrze season stats · Legia Warszawa season stats · Ekstraklasa table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.