Ekstraklasa · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 17:00. Our rating makes this 54% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Ekstraklasa average is 53%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 46% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 69% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | Yes |
The result model puts GKS Katowice at 52%, the draw at 24% and Widzew Łódź at 24%, from expected goals of 1.79 and 1.13.
The league sets the starting point. Ekstraklasa has produced over 2.5 goals in 53% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. GKS Katowice have 9 in 11 this season (4 of 5 at home), Widzew Łódź 6 in 11 (2 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 62% and 54%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 11 and 11 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 55% and 51%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 53%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 53%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 56%, from expected goals of 1.79 for GKS Katowice and 1.13 for Widzew Łódź. Folding in 30% of that view gives 54%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GKS Katowice | 11 | 82% | 45% | 64% |
| Widzew Łódź | 11 | 55% | 36% | 64% |
Our numbers give this match a 71% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 36% of two or more. The Ekstraklasa rates, last season and this season combined, are 72% and 35% (this season so far: 68% with a first-half goal, from 97 games). After the break: 78% for a goal and 46% for two or more (league 79% and 48%). GKS Katowice's last 50 games had a first-half goal 78% of the time and a second-half goal 84%; Widzew Łódź's last 50, 60% and 72%. A goal in both halves: 56% (league 58%). Highest-scoring half: second 44%, first 29%, level 27% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: GKS Katowice season stats · Widzew Łódź season stats · Ekstraklasa table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.