J3 League · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 05:00. Our rating makes this 53% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The J3 League average is 48%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 47% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 69% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | Yes |
The result model puts Fukushima United at 42%, the draw at 24% and Matsumoto Yamaga at 34%, from expected goals of 1.66 and 1.47.
The league sets the starting point. J3 League has produced over 2.5 goals in 48% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Fukushima United have 11 in 12 this season (6 of 6 at home), Matsumoto Yamaga 5 in 12 (2 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 63% and 46%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 12 and 12 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 59% and 45%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 52%.
Head to head. These sides have met 6 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 17%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 50%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 61%, from expected goals of 1.66 for Fukushima United and 1.47 for Matsumoto Yamaga. Folding in 30% of that view gives 53%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fukushima United | 12 | 92% | 58% | 92% |
| Matsumoto Yamaga | 12 | 42% | 25% | 50% |
Our numbers give this match a 68% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 35% of two or more. The J3 League rates are 67% and 34%. After the break: 76% for a goal and 45% for two or more (league 76% and 42%). Fukushima United's last 50 games had a first-half goal 78% of the time and a second-half goal 86%; Matsumoto Yamaga's last 50, 64% and 68%. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · tomorrow.
More: Fukushima United season stats · Matsumoto Yamaga season stats · J3 League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.