National League · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 12:30. Our rating makes this 57% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The National League average is 58%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 43% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 65% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 61% | 39% | Yes |
The result model puts Forest Green at 39%, the draw at 24% and Harrogate Town at 37%, from expected goals of 1.65 and 1.59.
The league sets the starting point. National League has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Forest Green have 8 in 12 this season (6 of 7 at home), Harrogate Town 10 in 13 (3 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 61% and 64%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 12 and 13 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 56% and 52%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 63%, from expected goals of 1.65 for Forest Green and 1.59 for Harrogate Town. Folding in 30% of that view gives 57%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forest Green | 12 | 67% | 42% | 67% |
| Harrogate Town | 13 | 77% | 54% | 69% |
Our numbers give this match a 74% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 37% of two or more. The National League rates, last season and this season combined, are 72% and 36% (this season so far: 74% with a first-half goal, from 155 games). After the break: 82% for a goal and 47% for two or more (league 82% and 51%). Forest Green's last 50 games had a first-half goal 84% of the time and a second-half goal 84%; Harrogate Town's last 50, 70% and 82%. A goal in both halves: 61% (league 58%). Highest-scoring half: second 45%, first 31%, level 24% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Forest Green season stats · Harrogate Town season stats · National League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.