2. Liga · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 16:00. Our rating makes this 50% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The 2. Liga average is 52%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 73% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts First Vienna at 38%, the draw at 27% and FC BW Linz at 34%, from expected goals of 1.32 and 1.23.
The league sets the starting point. 2. Liga has produced over 2.5 goals in 52% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. First Vienna have 6 in 9 this season (3 of 4 at home), FC BW Linz 7 in 9 (2 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 59%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 9 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 47% and 53%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 50%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 47%, from expected goals of 1.32 for First Vienna and 1.23 for FC BW Linz. Folding in 30% of that view gives 49%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 50%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First Vienna | 9 | 67% | 56% | 56% |
| FC BW Linz | 9 | 78% | 33% | 56% |
Our numbers give this match a 74% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 35% of two or more. The 2. Liga rates, last season and this season combined, are 73% and 39% (this season so far: 78% with a first-half goal, from 72 games). After the break: 75% for a goal and 42% for two or more (league 76% and 43%). First Vienna's last 50 games had a first-half goal 74% of the time and a second-half goal 66%; FC BW Linz's last 50, 80% and 82%. A goal in both halves: 58% (league 56%). Highest-scoring half: second 43%, first 31%, level 26% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: First Vienna season stats · FC BW Linz season stats · 2. Liga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.