Eredivisie · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 15:30. Our rating makes this 65% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Eredivisie average is 64%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 35% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | 56% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 65% | 35% | Yes |
The result model puts Feyenoord at 57%, the draw at 20% and Fortuna Sittard at 23%, from expected goals of 2.34 and 1.45.
The league sets the starting point. Eredivisie has produced over 2.5 goals in 64% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Feyenoord have 7 in 9 this season (3 of 4 at home), Fortuna Sittard 6 in 9 (4 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 68% and 65%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 9 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 63% and 65%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 64%.
Head to head. These sides have met 5 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 20%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 62%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 73%, from expected goals of 2.34 for Feyenoord and 1.45 for Fortuna Sittard. Folding in 30% of that view gives 65%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feyenoord | 9 | 78% | 78% | 56% |
| Fortuna Sittard | 9 | 67% | 67% | 78% |
Our numbers give this match a 81% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 45% of two or more. The Eredivisie rates, last season and this season combined, are 81% and 44% (this season so far: 83% with a first-half goal, from 81 games). After the break: 85% for a goal and 57% for two or more (league 85% and 56%). Feyenoord's last 50 games had a first-half goal 78% of the time and a second-half goal 90%; Fortuna Sittard's last 50, 84% and 80%. A goal in both halves: 68% (league 69%). Highest-scoring half: second 45%, first 29%, level 26% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Feyenoord season stats · Fortuna Sittard season stats · Eredivisie table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.