NB I · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 16:00. Our rating makes this 58% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The NB I average is 59%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 42% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 64% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 40% | Yes |
The result model puts Ferencvarosi TC at 47%, the draw at 25% and Paks at 28%, from expected goals of 1.63 and 1.21.
The league sets the starting point. NB I has produced over 2.5 goals in 59% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Ferencvarosi TC have 4 in 9 this season (1 of 3 at home), Paks 7 in 10 (2 of 4 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 55% and 62%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 9 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 61% and 61%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 61%.
Head to head. These sides have met 9 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 56%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 60%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 54%, from expected goals of 1.63 for Ferencvarosi TC and 1.21 for Paks. Folding in 30% of that view gives 58%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ferencvarosi TC | 9 | 44% | 22% | 67% |
| Paks | 10 | 70% | 50% | 70% |
Our numbers give this match a 69% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 39% of two or more. The NB I rates, last season and this season combined, are 69% and 39% (this season so far: 68% with a first-half goal, from 59 games). After the break: 87% for a goal and 49% for two or more (league 86% and 48%). Ferencvarosi TC's last 50 games had a first-half goal 66% of the time and a second-half goal 86%; Paks's last 50, 70% and 92%. A goal in both halves: 60% (league 60%). Highest-scoring half: second 45%, first 30%, level 25% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Ferencvarosi TC season stats · Paks season stats · NB I table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.