Süper Lig · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 16:00. Our rating makes this 60% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Süper Lig average is 54%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | 61% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 59% | 41% | Yes |
The result model puts Fenerbahçe at 59%, the draw at 20% and Göztepe at 21%, from expected goals of 2.42 and 1.42.
The league sets the starting point. Süper Lig has produced over 2.5 goals in 54% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. Fenerbahçe have 6 in 8 this season (4 of 4 at home), Göztepe 7 in 8 (5 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 59% and 62%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 8 and 8 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 59% and 50%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 55%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 50%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 54%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 74%, from expected goals of 2.42 for Fenerbahçe and 1.42 for Göztepe. Folding in 30% of that view gives 60%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahçe | 8 | 75% | 25% | 38% |
| Göztepe | 8 | 88% | 75% | 75% |
Our numbers give this match a 72% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 37% of two or more. The Süper Lig rates, last season and this season combined, are 69% and 34% (this season so far: 76% with a first-half goal, from 72 games). After the break: 79% for a goal and 48% for two or more (league 80% and 48%). Fenerbahçe's last 50 games had a first-half goal 82% of the time and a second-half goal 84%; Göztepe's last 50, 68% and 72%. A goal in both halves: 60% (league 57%). Highest-scoring half: second 45%, first 29%, level 26% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: Fenerbahçe season stats · Göztepe season stats · Süper Lig table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.