Liga I · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 18:00. Our rating makes this 48% to go over 2.5 goals, though our own outlier boards contradict the call, so we sit it out. The Liga I average is 46%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 52% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 71% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 48% | Yes |
The result model puts FC Voluntari at 41%, the draw at 29% and Farul Constanta at 30%, from expected goals of 1.28 and 1.04.
The league sets the starting point. Liga I has produced over 2.5 goals in 46% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. FC Voluntari have 9 in 12 this season (4 of 7 at home), Farul Constanta 6 in 12 (3 of 7 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 48%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 12 and 12 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 56% and 46%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 50%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 41%, from expected goals of 1.28 for FC Voluntari and 1.04 for Farul Constanta. Folding in 30% of that view gives 47%.
Calibration. Tested against 97,729 past matches, our ratings below 55% have run consistently too pessimistic — a figure in the high 30s, for instance, has come in about four points higher. So ratings in that range are lifted part-way back, giving 48%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Voluntari | 12 | 75% | 50% | 58% |
| Farul Constanta | 12 | 50% | 42% | 58% |
Our numbers give this match a 69% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 35% of two or more. The Liga I rates, last season and this season combined, are 67% and 34% (this season so far: 65% with a first-half goal, from 97 games). After the break: 76% for a goal and 41% for two or more (league 77% and 44%). FC Voluntari's last 50 games had a first-half goal 70% of the time and a second-half goal 72%; Farul Constanta's last 50, 74% and 76%. A goal in both halves: 55% (league 51%). Highest-scoring half: second 44%, first 30%, level 26% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: FC Voluntari season stats · Farul Constanta season stats · Liga I table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.