Super League · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 17:00. Our rating makes this 65% to go over 2.5 goals, though our own outlier boards contradict the call, so we sit it out. The Super League average is 68%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 35% | no pick |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41% | 59% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 65% | 35% | Yes |
The result model puts FC ST. Gallen at 37%, the draw at 24% and Servette FC at 39%, from expected goals of 1.66 and 1.69.
The league sets the starting point. Super League has produced over 2.5 goals in 68% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. FC ST. Gallen have 7 in 10 this season (4 of 5 at home), Servette FC 5 in 10 (3 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 69% and 63%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 10 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 69% and 64%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 67%.
Head to head. These sides have met 10 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 20%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 65%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 65%, from expected goals of 1.66 for FC ST. Gallen and 1.69 for Servette FC. Folding in 30% of that view gives 65%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC ST. Gallen | 10 | 70% | 50% | 60% |
| Servette FC | 10 | 50% | 20% | 50% |
Our numbers give this match a 76% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 42% of two or more. The Super League rates, last season and this season combined, are 76% and 43% (this season so far: 82% with a first-half goal, from 60 games). After the break: 85% for a goal and 54% for two or more (league 85% and 57%). FC ST. Gallen's last 50 games had a first-half goal 78% of the time and a second-half goal 78%; Servette FC's last 50, 74% and 90%. A goal in both halves: 64% (league 66%). Highest-scoring half: second 45%, first 30%, level 25% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: FC ST. Gallen season stats · Servette FC season stats · Super League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.