Bundesliga · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 14:30. Our rating makes this 59% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Bundesliga average is 65%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 41% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 63% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 43% | Yes |
The result model puts FC Schalke 04 at 41%, the draw at 27% and RB Leipzig at 32%, from expected goals of 1.42 and 1.22.
The league sets the starting point. Bundesliga has produced over 2.5 goals in 65% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. FC Schalke 04 have 3 in 6 this season (0 of 3 at home), RB Leipzig 5 in 6 (2 of 3 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 62% and 69%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 6 and 6 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 57% and 68%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 63%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 49%, from expected goals of 1.42 for FC Schalke 04 and 1.22 for RB Leipzig. Folding in 30% of that view gives 59%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Schalke 04 | 6 | 50% | 17% | 33% |
| RB Leipzig | 6 | 83% | 67% | 33% |
Our numbers give this match a 75% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 42% of two or more. The Bundesliga rates, last season and this season combined, are 77% and 43% (this season so far: 83% with a first-half goal, from 54 games). After the break: 84% for a goal and 53% for two or more (league 86% and 58%). FC Schalke 04's last 50 games had a first-half goal 68% of the time and a second-half goal 72%; RB Leipzig's last 50, 74% and 88%. A goal in both halves: 62% (league 68%). Highest-scoring half: second 45%, first 29%, level 26% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: FC Schalke 04 season stats · RB Leipzig season stats · Bundesliga table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.