Super League · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 19:30. Our rating makes this 71% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The Super League average is 68%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 71% | 29% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49% | 51% | Over |
| Both teams to score | 69% | 31% | Yes |
The result model puts FC Luzern at 33%, the draw at 20% and FC Sion at 47%, from expected goals of 1.99 and 2.36.
The league sets the starting point. Super League has produced over 2.5 goals in 68% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. FC Luzern have 8 in 10 this season (4 of 5 at home), FC Sion 9 in 10 (5 of 5 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 72% and 75%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 10 and 10 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 74% and 62%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 68%.
Head to head. These sides have met 7 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 57%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 67%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 81%, from expected goals of 1.99 for FC Luzern and 2.36 for FC Sion. Folding in 30% of that view gives 71%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
Our numbers give this match a 79% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 46% of two or more. The Super League rates, last season and this season combined, are 76% and 43% (this season so far: 82% with a first-half goal, from 60 games). After the break: 83% for a goal and 60% for two or more (league 85% and 57%). FC Luzern's last 50 games had a first-half goal 80% of the time and a second-half goal 86%; FC Sion's last 50, 84% and 74%. A goal in both halves: 66% (league 66%). Highest-scoring half: second 46%, first 29%, level 25% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: FC Luzern season stats · FC Sion season stats · Super League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.