National League · Saturday, 31 October 2026 · 12:30. Our rating makes this 56% to go over 2.5 goals, so our lean is over. The National League average is 58%.
| Market | Yes | No | Our call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 44% | Over |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 68% | no pick |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 42% | Yes |
The result model puts FC Halifax Town at 42%, the draw at 25% and Yeovil Town at 33%, from expected goals of 1.6 and 1.38.
The league sets the starting point. National League has produced over 2.5 goals in 58% of its matches, and that is where a team with no record of its own would sit.
Each side's own record. FC Halifax Town have 7 in 13 this season (4 of 7 at home), Yeovil Town 8 in 13 (3 of 6 away). Those records are pulled toward the league rate with the weight of about 24 matches — enough that two or three unusual games cannot swing a rating — giving 56% and 59%.
Last season still counts, briefly. With 13 and 13 games played this season, last season's rates are still blended in and fade out entirely by game 40 — the point at which our testing showed they stop adding accuracy. A single season is part luck, so each club's record is first pulled toward the league average by 34 games' weight. That moves the two figures to 59% and 55%.
The mix. Weighted 40% home side, 40% away side and 20% league — the split that beat every alternative across 30,582 matches of testing — that gives 57%.
Head to head. These sides have met 4 times in three years, producing over 2.5 goals in 25%. That nudges the number 5% of the way toward the head-to-head pattern — deliberately small, because fixtures change more than reputations do — landing on 56%.
Goal expectation. Separately a Poisson model built from attack and defence strength — using real expected-goals data where the league has it — puts this match at 57%, from expected goals of 1.6 for FC Halifax Town and 1.38 for Yeovil Town. Folding in 30% of that view gives 56%.
This breakdown is generated from the same inputs the rating uses, so it cannot describe a calculation we did not perform. The full model is set out in the methodology.
| Team | Games | O2.5 | O3.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Halifax Town | 13 | 54% | 31% | 62% |
| Yeovil Town | 13 | 62% | 46% | 69% |
Our numbers give this match a 71% chance of at least one goal before half-time and 35% of two or more. The National League rates, last season and this season combined, are 72% and 36% (this season so far: 74% with a first-half goal, from 155 games). After the break: 82% for a goal and 50% for two or more (league 82% and 51%). FC Halifax Town's last 50 games had a first-half goal 68% of the time and a second-half goal 88%; Yeovil Town's last 50, 70% and 78%. A goal in both halves: 56% (league 58%). Highest-scoring half: second 47%, first 30%, level 23% — close to the league's usual split, because team form says little about which half is busier. Team form says less about a single half than about a full match, so these numbers stay close to the league's.
Every match ranked the same way: first half goals today · second half goals today · goal in both halves today · tomorrow.
More: FC Halifax Town season stats · Yeovil Town season stats · National League table and form. Ratings are calibrated probabilities, not tips — a 60% call is expected to miss two times in five.